A groundbreaking independent survey published in The Lancet Global Health has revealed a staggering human cost of the ongoing conflict in Gaza, estimating that 75,200 violent deaths occurred between October 7, 2023, and January 5, 2025.

The Gaza Mortality Survey (GMS), the first population-representative household study of its kind during this conflict, suggests that the true number of fatalities is significantly higher than previously reported.

According to the researchers, the official Ministry of Health (MoH) figure for the same period was "34·7% below our central estimate."

The study, funded by the European Research Council and the Université Catholique de Louvain, paints a grim picture of the conflict's impact on the most vulnerable sectors of society in Gaza.

Of the estimated 75,200 violent deaths, representing approximately 3.4% of Gaza's pre-conflict population, the report found that "women, children (ie, younger than 18 years), and older people (ie, older than 64 years) comprised 56.2% (95% CI 50·4–61·9) of violent deaths, totalling 42.200 deaths."

The findings underscore a demographic composition of casualties that, while higher in raw numbers, aligns with the trends seen in MoH reporting.

In addition to direct violence, the researchers sought to quantify the "indirect" toll of the war—deaths caused by the collapse of the healthcare system, malnutrition, and disease.

The survey estimated 16,300 non-violent deaths, of which 8,540 were classified as "excess deaths above pre-conflict projections."

While these numbers are lower than some previous catastrophic projections, they represent a significant surge in mortality beyond what would be expected under normal conditions.

Researchers conducted the survey between December 30, 2024, and January 5, 2025, interviewing 2,000 households across 200 primary sampling units. The team used "raking procedures" to adjust for demographic characteristics, ensuring the data remained representative despite the massive displacement of the population.

"This first independent population survey of mortality in the Gaza Strip shows that violent deaths have substantially exceeded official figures whereas the demographic composition of casualties aligns with MoH reporting," the authors said in their interpretation.

The study serves as a rigorous scientific foundation for understanding the scale of the crisis. By documenting the vital status of nearly 10,000 household members, the GMS team has provided "crucial empirical foundations for assessing the true human cost of the conflict."